¿Es plausible introducir en España un complemento salarial en el IRPF? Una valoración a partir de un ejercicio de simulación

Resumen

A partir de la revisión de la literatura más reciente sobre el diseño y los efectos económicos de los denominados in-work benefits, este trabajo propone la introducción de una deducción reembolsable en el IRPF inspirada en el Earned Income Tax Credit estadounidense. Para cuantificar el coste recaudatorio ex ante y los efectos distributivos de esta propuesta, se explota la última oleada disponible de los microdatos tributarios contenidos en el Panel de Declarantes del IRPF (1999-2016). Los resultados obtenidos proporcionan un coste fiscal razonable. Por último se discute la eventual complementariedad del subsidio salarial propuesto para coadyuvar a los objetivos del Ingreso Mínimo Vital.

Palabras clave:

pobreza salarial, subsidios salariales, IRPF, microdatos tributarios, España

Citas

Abbas, J. (2020). What role for ‘in-work benefits’? A comparison of policies in EU Member States, 20006-2017 [doctoral thesis, University of Bath].

Aguilar, M., Arriba, A., Ayala, L., Fernández, G., Sanzo, L. y Zalakain, J. (2015). Primera Parte. Ideas y reflexiones para la reforma del Sistema de Garantía de Rentas en España. En G. Fernández, Hacia un sistema más inclusivo de garantía de rentas en España: diferentes alternativas de desarrollo (pp. 7-86). Fundación FOESSA.

AIReF, Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal. (2019). Los programas de rentas mínimas en España. https://www.airef.es/wp-content/uploads/RENTA_MINIMA/20190626-ESTUDIO-Rentas-minimas.pdf

AIReF, Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal. (2020). Estudio de beneficios fiscales. Evaluación del gasto público 2019. https://www.airef.es/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Docus_Varios_SR/Estudio_Beneficios_Fiscales_Spending_Review.pdf

AIReF, Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal. (2022). 1ª Opinión Ingreso Mínimo Vital. Opinión 1/22. https://www.airef.es/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/IMV/OPINION-AIREF-IMV.pdf

Autor, D.H., & Dorn, D. (2013). The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polatization of the US Labor Market. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553-1597.

Ayala, L. (2016). El gasto público en programas de lucha contra la pobreza: tendencias, determinantes y necesidades de reforma. Papeles de Economía Española, 147, 145-166.

Ayala, L., & Paniagua, M. (2019). The Impact of Tax Benefits on Female Labor Supply and Income Distribution in Spain. Review of Economics of the Household, 17(3), 1025-1048. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-018-9405-5

Ayala, L., y Cantó, O. (2022). Radiografía de medio siglo de desigualdad en España. Características y factores que explican que España sea uno de los países más desiguales de Europa. Informe 01, Desigualdad y pacto social. El Observatorio Social, Fundación La Caixa.

Ayala, L., Jurado, A., y Pérez Mayo, J. (2022). El Ingreso Mínimo Vital: adecuación y cobertura. Papeles de Economía Española, 172, 155-169.

Azmat, G., (2006). The incidence of an earned income tax credit: evaluating the impact on wages in the UK. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, CEPDP nº 724.

Bargain, O., Orsini, K., & Peichl, A. (2014). Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New results. Journal of Human Resources, 49(3), 723-838.

Barrios Cobos, S., Fatica, S., Martínez López, D., & Mourre, G. (2018). The fiscal effects of work-related tax expenditures in Europe. Public Finance Review, 46(5), 793-820, https://doi.org/10.1177/1091142116679729.

Bastian, J., & Michelmore, K. (2018). The Long-Term Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Children´s Education and Employment Outcomes. Journal of Labor Economics, 36(4), 1127-1163, https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/697477

Bastian, J. (2020). The Rise of Working Mothers and the 1975 Earned Income Tax Credit. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 12(3), 44-75. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180039.

Bastian, J. E., & Jones, M. R. (2021). Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers. Journal of Public Economics, 196.

Blundell, R., Duncan, A., Mccrae, J., & Meghir, C., (2000). The labour market impact of the working families tax credit. Fiscal Studies, 21(1), 65–67.

Bozio, A., Garbinti, B., Guillot, M., Goupille-Lebret, J., & Piketty, T. (2020). Predistribution vs. Redistribution: Evidence from France and the U.S. Working Papers 2020-24, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

Braga, B., Blavin, F., & Gangopadhyaya, A. (2020). The long-term effects of childhood exposure to the earned income tax credit on health outcomes. Journal of Public Economics, 190, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104249.

Brewer, M., Duncan A., Shephard, A., & Suarez, M. (2006). Did working families tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain. Labour Economics, 13(6), 699-720. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2005.11.002

Brewer, M., Browne, J., Joyce, R., & Sibieta, L. (2010). Child Poverty in the UK since 1998-99: Lessons fron the Past Decade. IFS Working Paper, 10/23.

Buhmann, B., Rainwater, L., Schmaus, G., & Smeeding, T. (1988). Equivalence Scales, Well-Being, Inequality and Poverty: Sensitivity Estimates Across Ten Countries Using the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) Database. The Review of Income and Wealth, 34(2), 115-142.

Burkhauser, R.V. (2015). The minimum wage versus the earned income tax credit for reducing poverty. IZA World of Labor, 2015: 153,

Chetty, R., Friedman, J.N., & Saez, E. (2013). Using differences in knowledge across neighborhoods to uncover the impacts of the EITC on earnings. American Economic Review, 103(7), 2683–2721.

Comité de Personas Expertas para elaborar el Libro Blanco sobre la Reforma Tributaria. (2022). Libro Blanco sobre la reforma tributaria. https://www.ief.es/docs/investigacion/comiteexpertos/LibroBlancoReformaTributaria_2022.pdf

Consejo de la Unión Europea. (2019). Recomendación del Consejo relativa la Programa Nacional de Reformas de 2019 de España y por la que se emite un dictamen del Consejo sobre el Programa de Estabilidad de 2019 de España. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/ES/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52019DC0509

Dilnot, A., & Mc Crae, J. (2000). The Family Credit System and the Working Families’ Tax Credit in the United Kingdom. OECD Economic Studies, 31(2), 69-84.

Domínguez, F., López-Laborda, J., y Rodrigo, F. (2015). El hueco que deja el diablo: Una estimación del fraude en el IRPF con microdatos tributarios. Revista de Economía Aplicada, 23(68), 81-102.

Dowd, T., & Horowitz, J. B. (2008, November 21). The Earned Income Tax Credit: Safety Net or Bootstrap. National Tax Association Conference on Taxation, National Tax Association, Philadelphia, PA.

Dowd, T., & Horowitz, J.B. (2011). Income Mobility an the Earned Income Tax Credit: Short-Term Safety Net or Long.Term Income Support. Public Finance Review, 39(5), 619-652. https://doi.org/10.1177/1091142111401008

Eamon, M.K., Wu, C., & Zhang, S. (2009). Effectiveness and limitations of the Earned Income Tax Credit for reducieng child poverty in the United States. Children and Youth Services Review, 31(8), 919-926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2009.04.008

EAPN, European Anti-Poverty Network. (2021a). El estado de la pobreza. Seguimiento del indicador de pobreza y exclusión social. 11º Informe. https://www.eapn.es/ARCHIVO/documentos/documentos/informe-AROPE-2021-contexto-nacional.pdf

EAPN, European Anti-Poverty Network. (2021b). El mapa de la pobreza severa en España. El paisaje del abandono. 2º Informe. https://www.eapn.es/ARCHIVO/documentos/documentos/1631255247_informe-paisaje-abandono-eapn_vf.pdf

Eissa, N., & Hoynes, H. W. (2004). Taxes and the labor market participation of married couples: the earned income tax credit. Journal of Public Economics, 88(9-10), 1931-1958.

Fernández, A., De la Rica, S., Gorjón, L., & Vega Bayo, A. (2019). The Impact of Technological Progress on the Labor Market: Employment Polatization in Europe. ISEAK Working Paper 2019/5.

Goldin, J. (2018). Tax benefit complexiy and take-up: lessons from the earned income tax credit. Tax L. Rev., 72. https://law.stanford.edu/publications/tax-benefit-complexity-take-lessons-earned-income-tax-credit/

Gómez de Antonio, M. y Villazán Pellejero, N. (2022). Propuesta de implantación de políticas de complemento salarial en el Ingreso Mínimo Vital y en el IRPF: análisis empírico con EUROMOD. Hacienda Pública Española/Review of Public Economics, Manuscript 2300.

Granell Pérez, R., & Fuenmayor Fernández, A. (2019). Implementing a Negative Income Tax. Net Cost, Poverty and Inequality Effects. Hacienda Pública Española/Review of Public Economics, 228(1), 83-108.

Gregg, P., Harkness, S., & Smith, S. (2009). Welfare Reform and Lone Parents in the UK. The Economic Journal, 119(535), 38-65.

Gregg, P., Johnson, P., & Reed, H. (1999). Entering Work and the British Tax and Benefit System. Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Hoynes, H. W., & Patel, A. J. (2018). Effective Policy for Reducing Poverty and Inequality? The Earned Income Tax Credit and the Distribution of Income. Journal of Human Resources, 53(4), 859-890.

INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística. (2017). Encuesta Continua de Hogares. Año 2016.

Jo, Y. (2018). Does the earned income tax credit increase children´s weight? The impact of policy-driven income on childhood obesity. Health Economics, 27(7), 1089-1102. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3658

Jones, M. R. (2017). The EITC over the Great Recession: Who benefited?. National Tax Journal, 70(4), 709-736. https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2017.4.01

Keane, M., & Moffitt, R. (1998). A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply. International Economic Review, 39(3), 553-589. https://doi.org/10.2307/2527390

Kleven, H. (2021). The EITC and the Extensive Margin: A Reappraisal. (NBER Working Paper No. 26405). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Laun, L. (2019). In-work benefits across Europe. Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy Working Paper, 2019:16.

Leigh, A. (2010). Who Benefits from the Earned Income Tax Credit? Incidence among Recipients, Coworkers and Firms. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 10(1).

Maag, E., Congdon, W.J., y Yau, E. (2021, February). The Earned Income Tax Credit: Program Outcomes, Payment Timing, and Next Steps for Research. OPRE Report #2021-34, Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Manoli, D., & Turner, N. (2018). Cash-on-Hand and College Enrollment: Evidence from Population Tax Data and the Earned Income Tax Credit. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(2), 242-271.

Meyer, B. D., & Rosembaum, D. T. (2001). Welfare, the Earned Income Tax Credit and the labour supply of single mothers. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(3), 1063-1114. https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530152466313

Michelmore, K., & Lopoo, L. M. (2021). Exposure to the Earned Income Tax Credit in Early Childhood and Family Wealth. RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, 7(3), 196-215. https://doi.org/10.7758/RSF.2021.7.3.09

Adam, S., Besley, T., Blundell, R., Bond, S., Chote, R., Gammie M., Johnson P., Myles, G., Poterba, J. M., & Mirrlees, J. (2011). Integrating personal taxes and benefits. In S. Adam, T. Besley, R. Blundell, S. Bond, R. Chote, M. Gammie, P. Johnson, G. Myles, J. M. Poterba, & J. Mirrlees, Tax by Design (pp. 122-147). Institute for Fiscal Studies.

National Conference of State Legislatures. (2022). Earned Income Tax Credit Overview. Consultado el 10 de abril de 2023. https://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/earned-income-tax-credits-for-working-families.aspx

Neumark, D., & Shirley, P. (2020). Long-Run Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit. Federal Research Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, 2020-21.

Nichols, A., & Rothstein, J. (2015). The Earned Income Tax Credit. (NBER Working Paper No. 21211). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Noonan, M. C., Smith, S., & Corcoran, M. E. (2007). Examining the impact of welfare reform, labor market conditions, and the Earned Income Tax Credit on the Employment of lack and white single mothers. Social Science Research, 36(1), 95-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2005.09.004

Paniagua, M. (2018). Incentivos y redistribución en las políticas In-Work: Un análisis de microsimulación para España. Estudios de Hacienda Pública, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.

Rodrigo, F. y Sanz-Arcega, E. (2019). Coste y efectos redistributivos de diversos esquemas de subsidio salarial en el IRPF: algunas simulaciones con microdatos tributarios. Papeles de Economía Española, 161, 195-220.

Rothstein, J. (2010). Is the EITC as Good as an NIT? Conditional Cash Transfers and Tax Incidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2(1), 177-208.

Rothstein, J., & Zipperer, B. (2020). The EITC and mínimum wage work together to reduce poverty and raise incomes. Economic Policy Institute. https://www.epi.org/publication/eitc-and-minimum-wage-work-together/

Thomson, D., Gennetian, L. A., Chen, Y., Barnett, H., Carter, M., & Deambrosi, S. (2020). State Policy and Practice Related to Earned Income Tax Credits May Affect Receipt among Hispanic Families with Children. Child Trends.

Trillas, F. (2021). Explicar las desigualdades a partir de la empresa. Papeles de Economía Española, 167, 61-70.

Vandelannoote, D., & Verbist, G. (2017). The impact of in-work benefits on employment and poverty. Euromod Working Paper Series 4/17.