China's economic outlook post-COVID-19 and beyond

Alicia García-Herrero

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Publicado: dic 30, 2021
Resumen

China fue la primera economía en sufrir la pandemia de la COVID-19, pero también fue el primer país en
salir de la misma, aunque la fuerte recuperación ha tenido poco recorrido dado que China está entrando
en una rápida desaceleración cíclica que contribuye a incrementar una desaceleración de tipo estructural.
Más allá de las perturbaciones económicas a corto plazo, las consecuencias de la pandemia podrían
afectar al crecimiento a medio plazo debido a una aceleración del crecimiento de la deuda y de riesgos
financieros. Yendo más allá, la desaceleración estructural de China está encaminada a acentuarse debido
al envejecimiento de la población y a la rápida desaceleración de la productividad del trabajo. Además, el
rápido deterioro de la situación exterior, sobre todo con los Estados Unidos, también va a ser un elemento
que dificulte el crecimiento de China. Por último, el nuevo mantra chino de «prosperidad compartida»
también tiene una importante influencia en las perspectivas de crecimiento futuro en China.

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Palabras clave:
COVID-19, economía china, envejecimiento de la población, competición estratégica entre Estados Unidos y China COVID-19, Chinese economy, population aging, US-China strategic competition
Citas

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