Un modelo de riesgo soberano con recursos naturales

Carlos Esquivel

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Publicado: jul 30, 2022
Resumen

Este artículo propone un modelo para estudiar cómo la explotación de recursos naturales afecta al riesgo soberano de países emergentes. El modelo incluye inversión, producción en tres sectores y recursos naturales. En la presencia de un mayor acervo de recursos naturales, el Gobierno incrementa la inversión para explotarlos y aumenta el consumo, ya que el ingreso permanente es mayor. Tanto la mayor inversión como el consumo adicional son financiados con un aumento de deuda externa. Adicionalmente, hay una reasignación de factores de la producción hacia bienes no comerciables, lo cual aprecia el tipo de cambio real y aumenta la volatilidad del ingreso comerciable. Los incrementos en volatilidad y deuda generan un aumento en la probabilidad de impago y, con ello, un incremento en la tasa de interés. Asimismo, la volatilidad del consumo también aumenta, lo cual puede disminuir las ganancias de bienestar provenientes de una mayor riqueza de recursos naturales.

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Palabras clave:
riesgo soberano, enfermedad holandesa, tipo de cambio real
Citas

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