Acción climática 2.0: ¿pueden los Pactos Verdes llevarnos a una transición justa hacia las emisiones netas nulas?

Lara Lázaro Toura
Gonzalo Escribano Francés

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

Publicado: dic 13, 2022
Resumen

Es necesaria una reforma estructural sin precedentes para evitar los peores impactos del cambio climático. Partiendo del New Deal de Roosevelt, se analiza en qué medida los pactos verdes propuestos y los planes de recuperación presentados desde principios de siglo pueden resultar en un desarrollo resiliente al clima según el enfoque del crecimiento verde y la ecomodernización. El artículo concluye que, si bien la legislación y los paquetes de recuperación contienen elementos «verdes», no se puede afirmar de manera inequívoca que los pactos verdes resulten en una transición justa hacia las emisiones netas nulas.

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Palabras clave:
New Deal, estímulo fiscal verde, new deal verde, ecomodernización, decrecimiento
Citas

Atkinson, G., Hett, T., & Newcombe, J. (1997). Measuring “corporate sustainability”. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 99-01.

Barbier, E.B. (2009). Rethinking the Economic Recovery: A Global Green New Deal. UNEP.

Barbier, E. B. (2010). Global governance: The G20 and a global green new deal. Economics, 4(1), 1-29.

Barbier, E.B. (2016). Building the green economy. Canadian Public Policy, 42(s1), S1–S9.

Barbier, E. B. (2019a). How to make the next Green New Deal work. Nature, 565(7737), 6-7.

Barbier, E.B. (2019b). The Fall and Rise of the Green New Deal. Public Administration Review Bully Pulpit Symposium on "The Green New Deal: Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy", July 16, 2019. https://www.publicadministrationreview.com/2019/07/16/gndbarbier/

Berghmans, N. (2021, September 10). Is the French recovery and resilience plan climate-compatible? A preliminary analysis. ARI nº 75/2021. Elcano Royal Institute.

Bieliszczuk, B. (2021, October 10). The Polish Recovery Plan: a careful step toward energy transition. ARI nº 87/2021. Elcano Royal Institute.

Bureau of reclamation. (2022). About us. Last access the 20th of March 2022. https://www.usbr.gov/main/about/fact.html

Climate Action Tracker. (2021). Glasgow’s 2030 credibility gap: net zero’s lip service to climate action Wave of net zero emission goals not matched by action on the ground. Warming Projections Global Update, November 2021. Last accessed the 14th of March 2022. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/997/CAT_2021-11-09_Briefing_Global-Update_Glasgow2030CredibilityGap.pdf

Dietz, S., & Neumayer, E. (2007). Weak and strong sustainability in the SEEA: concepts and measurement. Ecological Economics, 61(4), 617-626.

Dietz, S. (2019, February 14). The economics of 1.5°C climate change. [video]. Youtube. Last accessed the 8th of March, 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_8S2qX5ONs

EC, European Commission. (2020a). COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS. The European Green Deal. Last accessed the 18th of March 2022. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:b828d165-1c22-11ea-8c1f-01aa75ed71a1.0002.02/DOC_1&format=PDF

EC, European Commission. (2020b). COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS. Sustainable Europe Investment Plan European Green Deal Investment Plan. Last accessed the 18th of March 2022. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/fs_20_48

EC, European Commission. (2020c). COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS. Sustainable Europe Investment Plan European Green Deal Investment Plan. Last accessed the 28th of March 2022. https://eurlex.europa.eu/legalcontent/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0021&from=EN

EC, European Commission. (2021). Statement by Executive Vice-President Timmermans on delivering the European Green Deal. Last accessed the 11th of August 2022).

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_21_3722

EC, European Commission. (2022). COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS. REPowerEU: Joint European Action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy. Last accessed the 12th of March 2022.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:71767319-9f0a-11ec-83e1-01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF.

EEA, European Environment Agency. (2022). European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change. Last access the 24th of August 2022. https://www.eea.europa.eu/about-us/climate-advisory-board/members-of-the-advisory-board

Fea?s, E., & Steinberg, F. (2021, July 6). The climate and energy transition component of the Spanish National Recovery and Resilience Plan. ARI nº 64/2021. Elcano Royal Institute.

Foxon, J. T., Köhler, J., Michie, J., Oughton, C. (2012). Towards a new complexity economics for sustainability. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37(1), 187-208. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bes057

Friedman, T. L. (2007, April 15). The power of Green. The New York Times. Last accessed the 27th of March, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/opinion/15iht-web-0415edgreen-full.5291830.html

Galvin, R., & Healy, N. (2020). The Green New Deal in the United States: What is it and how to pay for it. Energy Research and Social Science, 67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101529

Green New Deal Group. (2008). A Green New Deal. Joined-up policies to solve the triple crunch of the credit crisis, climate change and high oil prices. Green New Economics Foundation. Last accessed the 14th of August 2022. https://neweconomics.org/uploads/files/8f737ea195fe56db2f_xbm6ihwb1.pdf

Green, J. (2020). The Green New Deal in the Shadow of Keynes – old ideas for new challenges?. Cambridge Open Engage. https://doi.org/10.33774/coe-2020-dz5q5

Greve, J. (2022, August 12). US House passes Democrats’ landmark healthcare and climate Bill. The Guardian. Last accessed the 13th of August 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/12/us-house-passes-climate-bill-inflation-reduction-act

Haberl, H., Wiedenhofer, D., Virág, D., Kalt, G., Plank, B., Brockway, P., Fishman, T., Hausknost, D., Krausmann, F., Leon-Gruchalski, B., Mayer, A., Pichler, M., Schaffartzik, A., Sousa, T., Streeck, J., & Creutzig, F. (2020). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a

Hepburn, C., O’Callaghan, B., Stern, N., Stiglitz, J., & Zenghelis, D. (2020). Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement_1), S359-S381.

Hickle, J., & Kallis, G. (2020). Is green growth possible?. New Political Economy, 25(4), 469-486. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2019.1598964

Hickel, J. (2021). What does degrowth mean? A few points of clarification. Globalizations, 18(7), 1105-1111. https://doi.org/10.1080/14747731.2020.1812222

Hope, C., & Newbery, D. (2006). Calculating the social cost of carbon. Working Papers EPRG 0720, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. Last accessed the 13th of August 2022. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.320.6580&rep=rep1&type=pdf

IEA, International Energy Agency. (2021). COP26 climate pledges could help limit global warming to 1.8 °C, but implementing them will be the key. Last accessed the 8th of March, 2022. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/cop26-climate-pledges-could-help-limit-global-warming-to-1-8-c-but-implementing-them-will-be-the-key

IMF, International Monetary Fund. (2021). Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers?. IMF Working paper, Working Paper No 2021/087.

IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3?32. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001

IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. (2022). Summary for Policymakers [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–33.

Jackson, T., & Webster, R. (2016). LIMITS REVISITED.

A review of the limits to growth debate. All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Limits to Growth. Last accessed the 12th of August 2022.

https://limits2growth.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Jackson-and-Webster-2016-Limits-Revisited.pdf

Jackson, T. (2017). Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet. Oxon: Routledge.

Kennedy, D. M. (2009). What the New Deal Did. Political Science Quarterly, 124(2), 251-268. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25655654

Kiefer, C. (2021, July 19). Next Generation EU: Germany focuses its climate policy on hydrogen and sustainable mobility. ARI nº 69/2021. Elcano Royal Institute.

Köberle, A. C., Vandyck, T., Guivarch, C., Macaluso, N., Bosetti, V., Gambhir, A., Tavoni, M., & Rogelj, J. (2021). The cost of mitigation revisited. Nature Climate Change, 11, 1035–1045. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01203-6

Lázaro Touza, L., Averchenkova, A., & Escribano Francés, G. (2022). High-impact green recovery in the EU’s ‘big five’ (emitters): key elements and caveats. Elcano Policy Paper. Elcano Royal Institute.

Leiter, T. (2021). Do governments track the implementation of national climate change adaptation plans? An evidence-based global stocktake of monitoring and evaluation systems. Environmental Science and Policy, 125, 179–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.08.017

Le Quéré, C., Korsbakken, J. I., Wilson, C., Tosun, J., Andrew, R., Andres, R. J., Canadell, J. G., Jordan, A., Peters, G. P., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2019). Drivers of declining CO2 emissions in 18 developed economies Nature Climate Change, 9(3), 213–217. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0419-7

Manchin, J. (2021). Manchin Statement on Build Back Better Act. Last accessed the 24th of March, 2022. https://www.manchin.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/manchin-statement-on-build-back-better-act

Mastini, R., Kallis, G., & Hickel, J. (2021). A Green Deal without growth?. Ecological Economics, 179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106832

Mathis, W. (2022, January 27). Energy Transition Drew Record $755 Billion of Investment in 2021. Bloomberg.

Mattei, L., & Bellisai, F. (2021, December 16). Italy’s National Recovery and Resiliency Plan’s climate impact. ARI nº 107/2021. Elcano Royal Institute.

Meadows, D., Meadows, D., Randers, J., & Behrens III, W.W. (1972). The Limits to Growth. Universe Books. Last accessed the 12th of August 2022.

https://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan-version.pdf

Nahm, J., Miller, S., & Urpelainen, J. (2022). G20’s US$14-trillion economic stimulus reneges on emissions pledges. Nature, 603(7899), 28-31. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00540-6

National Archive. (2022). National Industrial Recovery Act (1933). Last accessed the 20th of March 2022. https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/national-industrial-recovery-act#:~:text=On%20June%2016%2C%201933%2C%20this,by%20which%20President%20Franklin%20D.

Neumayer, E. (2013). Weak versus Strong Sustainability. Exploring the Limits of Two Opposing Paradigms, Fourth Edition. Edward Elgar.

OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021). Key findings from the update of the OECD Green Recovery Database. Last accessed the 25th of March 2022. https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=1109_1109272-nuk0ptos4l&title=Key-findings-from-the-update-of-the-OECD-Green-Recovery-Database

Pollin, R. (2018). De-growth vs a green new deal. New Left Review, 112, 5-25.

Probasco, J. (2022, February 23). Understanding Infrastructure Legislation. Investopedia. Last accessed the 26th of March 2022. https://www.investopedia.com/here-s-what-s-in-the-usd1-trillion-infrastructure-bill-passed-by-the-senate-5196817#citation-48

Real Instituto Elcano. (2022). Barómetro del Real Instituto Elcano Resultados octubre-noviembre de 2021 y febrero de 2022, 42ª oleada Madrid, febrero de 2022. Last accessed the 25th of March, 2022. https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/42brie-informe-febrero2022.pdf

Roberts, J. (2011). Environmental Policy. 2nd Edition. Oxon: Routledge.

Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, A., Chapin III, F.S., Lambin, E., Lenton, T.M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H., Nykvist, B., De Wit, C.A., Hughes, T., van der Leeuw, S., Rodhe H., Sorlin, S., Snyder, P.K., Costanza, R., Svedin, U., … Foley, J. (2009). Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society, 14(2). http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

Rogelj, J., Shindell, D., Jiang, K., Fifita, S., Forster, P., Ginzburg, V., Handa, C., Kheshgi, H., Kobayashi, S., Kriegler, E., Mundaca, L., Séférian, R., & Vilariño, M.V. (2018). Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. [Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P.R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J.B.R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M.I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., & Waterfield, T. (eds.)]. In Press.

Shiller, R. J. (2017). Narrative Economics. American Economic Review, 107(4), 967-1004.

Stern, N. (2006). The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511817434

Taherzadeh, O. (2021). Promise of a green economic recovery post- Covid: trojan horse or turning point? Global Sustainability, 4 E2, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.33

Trezi, A. (2022). Growth for Good. Reshaping Capitalism to Save Humanity from Climate Catastrophe. Harvard University Press.

UN, United Nations. (2015). Paris Agreement. Last accessed 15th of March 2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf

UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme. (2009). Global Green New Deal. Green Economy Initiative, Nairobi, Kenya.

UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme. (2020). Emissions Gap Report. Last accessed the 27th of March 2022. https://www.unep.org/interactive/emissions-gap-report/2020/

UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2021, November 4). Nationally determined contribution synthesis report. Last accessed the 20th of March 2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/message_to_parties_and_observers_on_ndc_numbers.pdf

UN Habitat. (2020). World Cities Report 2020. The value of Sustainable Urbanization. Last accessed the 14th of March 2022. https://unhabitat.org/sites/default/files/2020/10/wcr_2020_report.pdf

Vivid Economics and Finance for Biodiversity Initiative. (2021). Greenness of Stimulus Index. Last accessed the 14th of August 2022. https://www.vivideconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/201214-GSI-report_December-release.pdf

Von der Leyen, U., & Hoyer, W. (2021, March 22). A Global Green Deal. Last accessed the 14th of August 2022. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/fr/ac_21_1322

Washington Post. (2022, March 6). Opinion: Make a deal with Manchin on Build Back Better. Editorial Board Opinion. Last accessed the 24th of March 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/06/make-deal-with-manchin-build-back-better/

Weitzman, M. L. (1974). Prices vs. Quantities. The Review of Economic Studies, 41(4), 477–491. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296698

Winkler, A. (2009, March 31). The New Deal: Accomplishments and Failures. Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Last accessed the 7th of March 2022. https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/WinklerTestimony33109TheNewDealSenateTestimony.pdf