Recesiones y desequilibrios externos

Julia Estefanía-Flores
Davide Furceri
Pablo González-Domínguez
Daniel Jiménez


Publicado: jul 30, 2022

Este artículo analiza empíricamente la relación entre crecimiento económico (y las recesiones) y los desequilibrios de la cuenta corriente a escala nacional y global. Los resultados sugieren que los desequilibrios globales de cuenta corriente son fuertemente procíclicos, y que la fuerte y positiva correlación entre crecimiento global y desequilibrios no está impulsada únicamente por reducciones de crecimiento de calado. También encontramos que recesiones pasadas y crisis financieras, tanto específicas de un país como las globales, tienden a estar precedidas por un incremento de desequilibrios de cuenta corriente y son seguidas por persistentes y pronunciados ajustes. Este patrón se encuentra en marcado contraste con el incremento en desequilibrios globales observado durante la crisis de la COVID-19.


Palabras clave:
recesiones, COVID-19, desequilibrios, cuenta corriente

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