La hipótesis centrada en la cuenta corriente versus la hipótesis de los déficits gemelos: el ejemplo de Portugal dentro de la Unión Monetaria Europea

Resumen

En este artículo estudiamos la relación entre el saldo presupuestario del Estado y el de la cuenta corriente en Portugal, utilizando datos trimestrales desde 1999 hasta 2019. Por un lado, los test de causalidad encuentran una relación unidireccional que va desde el saldo de la cuenta corriente al saldo presupuestario del Estado. Por otro lado, estimaciones que emplean el método de variables instrumentales muestran una relación bidireccional de estas dos variables y la existencia de una relación bilateral entre los componentes estructurales de ambos saldos. A pesar de ello, la implicación de política es que el uso de la política fiscal para corregir el saldo exterior, especialmente en una crisis económica, no es sustancial, debido al pequeño tamaño del impacto
estimado. Además, con un modelo ARDL, encontramos una relación negativa a largo plazo entre la proporción de consumo público en el PIB y el saldo de la cuenta corriente. Como cabría esperar, variaciones en el consumo público real producen una respuesta adversa acumulada en el saldo de la cuenta corriente. Finalmente, la tasa de inversión afecta negativamente al componente cíclico del saldo de la cuenta corriente y contribuye a la mejora estructural del saldo presupuestario.

Palabras clave:

saldo presupuestario, saldo exterior, la hipótesis centrada en la cuenta corriente, déficits gemelos, consumo público

Citas

Abell, J. D. (1990). Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation. Journal of macroeconomics, 12(1), 81-96.

Afonso, A., Rault C. & Estay C. (2013). Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 11(1-2), 84-110.

Algieri, B. (2013). An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries. Economic Systems, 37(2), 233-253.

Barro, R. J. (1974). Are government bonds net wealth?. Journal of political economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.

Barro, R. J. (1989). The Ricardian approach to budget deficits. Journal of Economic perspectives, 3(2), 37-54.

Bird, G., Pentecost, E., & Yang, Y. (2019). The twin deficits hypothesis: An empirical examination. Open Economies Review, 30(4), 759-777.

Coelho, J. C. (2020). The relationship between budget deficit and external deficit: the case of Portugal. REM Working Paper 0116-2020.

Daly, V., & Siddiki, J. U. (2009). The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts. Applied Economics Letters, 16(11), 1155-1164.

Darrat, A. (1988). Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?. Southern Economic Journal, 54(4), 879-887.

Dibooglu, S. (2007). Accounting for US current account deficits: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics, 29(6), 787-793.

Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.

Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.

Feldstein, M. & Horioka C. (1980). Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows. The Economic Journal, 90(358), 314-329.

Fidrmuc, J. (2003). The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries. Economic Changing and Restructuring, 36(2), 135-152.

Fleming, J. M. (1962). Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates. Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, 9(November), 369-379.

Forte, F., & Magazzino, C. (2013). Twin Deficits in the European Countries. International Advances in Economic Research, 19(3), 289-310.

Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.

Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.

Janko, S. (2020). On the relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance: The case of Canada. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101241.

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.

Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.

Kalou, S., & Paleologou, S. M. (2012). The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(2), 230-241.

Karras, G. (2019). Are “twin deficits” asymmetric? Evidence on government budget and current account balances, 1870–2013. International Economics, 158, 12-24.

Kaufmann, S., Scharler J., & Winckler, G. (2002). The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?. Empirical Economics, 27(3), 529-542.

Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S. Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 362-383.

Litsios, I., & Pilbeam, L. (2017). An empirical analysis of the nexus between investment, fiscal balances and current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain. Economic Modelling, 63, 143-152.

Magazzino, C. (2012). The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Italy. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(3), 65-80.

Makin, A. J., & Narayan, P. K. (2013). Re-examining the “twin deficits” hypothesis: evidence from Australia. Empirical Economics, 45(2), 817-829.

McFarlane, A., Jung Y. C., & Das, A. (2020). The dynamics among domestic saving, investment, and the current account balance in the USA: a long run perspective. Empirical Economics, 58(4), 1659-1680.

Mundell, R. A. (1960). The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 74, 227-257.

Nikiforos, M., Carvalho, L., & Schoder, C. (2015). “Twin deficits” in Greece: in search of causality. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 38(2), 302-330.

Panousis, K. P., & Koukouritakis, M. (2020). Twin Deficits: Evidence from Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece. Intereconomics, 5(5), 332-338.

Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, the Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.

Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.

Poterba, J., & Summers, L. (1986). Financial Lifetimes and the Crowding Out Effects of Budget Deficits (NBER Working Paper No. 1955). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Rosenweig, J. A., & Tallman, E. W. (1993). Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: are the deficits really twins?. Economic Inquiry, 31(4), 580-594.

Summers, L. H. (1988). Tax Policy and International Competitiveness. In J. Frankel, International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, (pp. 349-386). Chicago University Press.

Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.

Trachanas, E., & Katrakilidis, C. (2013). The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 31(1), 502-510.

Vamvoukas, G. A. (1999). The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece. Applied Economics, 31(9), 1093-1100.